Banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO: RITA DE CÁSSIA DE VASCONCELOS PEDROSA

Uma banca de QUALIFICAÇÃO de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : RITA DE CÁSSIA DE VASCONCELOS PEDROSA
DATE: 23/07/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: Auditório do Deinfo (sessão fechada).
TITLE:

Stochastic Modeling Applied to the Expanded Brazilian Agriculture Sector: CO₂ Emissions Analysis and Reduction Proposals for Climate Mitigation

 

KEY WORDS:

Brazilian Expanded Agriculture; CO2 emissions; Probabilistic distributions; Climate mitigation; Zero Carbon Index.

PAGES: 258
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Probabilidade e Estatística
SUBÁREA: Probabilidade e Estatística Aplicadas
SUMMARY:

This thesis presents a statistical and integrated approach to analyzing the impacts of climate change on the Brazilian agricultural sector, with a focus on quantifying CO2 emissions along the expanded production chain, including the industrial and direct and indirect services sectors. Based on secondary data from the Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimation System (SEEG) and the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA), stochastic modeling was applied, adjusting probabilistic distributions and regression analysis, making it possible to construct future scenarios based on reduction targets. The research proposes a multi-criteria metric for evaluating climate impact models, as well as the development and application of the Expanded Agricultural Zero Carbon Index (ICZAE). Factor analysis and Pareto analysis tools were also used to identify and prioritize the categories with the greatest variability in emissions, guiding more efficient mitigation strategies. The comparison between the Phase I (historical data) and Phase II (adjusted distributions) models shows the effect of climate policies on slowing down emissions. The research provides relevant input for the design of public policies and mitigation strategies aimed at Carbon neutrality in the agricultural sector.

 

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externa ao Programa - 2555833 - CHIARA NATERCIA FRANCA ARAUJO - nullPresidente - CLAUDIO TADEU CRISTINO
Externo à Instituição - HERNANDE PEREIRA DA SILVA - IFPE
Interno - MOACYR CUNHA FILHO
Interna - TATIJANA STOSIC