Banca de DEFESA: RAFAELLA SANTOS BESERRA

Uma banca de DEFESA de MESTRADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : RAFAELLA SANTOS BESERRA
DATE: 27/05/2025
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

Analysis of the seasonality of the rainfall regime in the state of Paraíba, Brazil

KEY WORDS:

Rainfall regime, Seasonality indices, Replicability index, Mann-Kendall test.

PAGES: 55
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Probabilidade e Estatística
SUMMARY:

The analysis of rainfall seasonality is crucial as it enables the detection of trends and climate changes on local or regional scales. This not only facilitates the sustainable management of natural resources but is also essential for mitigating environmental risks and improving the quality of life of affected populations. The main objective of this study is to analyze the rainfall regimes of Paraíba, a state in northeastern Brazil, based on the calculations of the individual seasonality index (SIi) and the general seasonality index (SI), as well as the replicability index (RI). To achieve this goal, daily precipitation data recorded at 130 rain gauge stations over the period from 1994 to 2020 were analyzed. These data were made available by the Executive Agency for Water Management of Paraíba (AESA). The modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to investigate trends in the SIi time series. Additionally, the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolator was used to perform the spatial analysis of precipitation. The results indicated that the Zona da Mata is the region of the state with the highest rainfall indices, followed by the Agreste, where the rainy season begins in March and extends until June, characterized by strong seasonality and a short dry season. In the Borborema region, the SIi index revealed extreme seasonality, with almost all precipitation concentrated within just one to two months. Meanwhile, the Sertão, in the western portion of the state, exhibited a moderate but markedly seasonal rainfall regime, with a long dry season. Regarding the replicability index, the results suggest that the Sertão has the most consistent rainfall regime in the state. Stations with significant positive trends are predominantly located in the Agreste and Borborema regions. The relationship between the SIi index and longitude was also investigated. The results revealed a significant linear correlation, with a coefficient of r = -0.81. This suggests that the farther a region is from the ocean, the higher its seasonality index.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - ANTONIO SAMUEL ALVES DA SILVA
Interna - TATIJANA STOSIC
Externo à Instituição - SILVIO FERNANDO ALVES XAVIER JUNIOR - UEPB