Banca de DEFESA: ELAINE CRISTINA MOREIRA MARQUES

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : ELAINE CRISTINA MOREIRA MARQUES
DATE: 23/05/2025
TIME: 14:00
LOCAL: VIDEOCONFERÊNCIA
TITLE:

Counterfactual Analysis of University Dropout: Case Study in Agricultural Science Courses at the Federal Rural University of Pernambuco

KEY WORDS:

University dropout; Counterfactual inference; Causal modeling; Student retention; Academic management.

PAGES: 98
BIG AREA: Ciências Exatas e da Terra
AREA: Probabilidade e Estatística
SUMMARY:

University dropout is a complex phenomenon that directly impacts higher education institutions and students, leading to financial resource waste and hindering young people's academic and professional development. At the Federal Rural University of Pernambuco (UFRPE), dropout rates in Agricultural Sciences programs pose a significant challenge, requiring the identification of key factors contributing to early withdrawal. To deepen this analysis, this study adopts a counterfactual inference approach, allowing for the estimation of causal impacts of different variables on dropout rates. By applying counterfactual modeling techniques, alternative scenarios were analyzed to determine which factors increase or decrease students' chances of retention. The results indicate that the number of accumulated course approvals in the first semesters significantly influences academic retention, suggesting that academic support strategies can effectively reduce dropout rates. The proposed approach strengthens university administrators' decision-making processes, providing data-driven insights to enhance educational policies aimed at improving student retention.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Externa à Instituição - ELYDA LAISA SOARES XAVIER FREITAS - UPE
Externo à Instituição - JOÃO AGNALDO DO NASCIMENTO
Externo ao Programa - 2001572 - GABRIEL ALVES DE ALBUQUERQUE JUNIOR - nullPresidente - RAFAEL FERREIRA LEITE DE MELLO
Interno - TIAGO ALESSANDRO ESPINOLA FERREIRA