USE OF RECURRENCE PLOTS IN THE ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGICAL CHANGES CAUSED BY HUMAN ACTIVITY
Dam, Streamflow, Recurrence Plot, RQA, OPRP.
The sustainable use of freshwater resources is a major challenge due to climate change, human practices, the construction of dams and reservoirs. The operation of a dam can be modified to produce a natural-like flow without compromising its main services. The empirical analysis of streamflow data before and after dam construction can therefore provide valuable information to the sector responsible for flow control. The objective of this workis to investigte the nature of the hydrological processes of the São Francisco River basin, and the influence of the Sobradinho dam (BA). In order to detect possible hydrological alterations caused by the construction of this dam, daily streamflow data from the São Francisco River recorded at the fluviometric stations of Juazeiro (BA) and São Francisco (MG) were analyzed for the period from 1929 to 2009. The data are provided by the National Water Agency (ANA). The Recurrence Graph (RP) method and its modification, the Ordinal Pattern Recurrence Graph (OPRP), as well as the Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) were used to analyze the non-linear dynamics of streamflow series. The visual analysis of the RP/OPRP patterns and the corresponding set of quantitative measures obtained by the RQA indicate that the operation of the reservoir induced changes in the downstream flow (recorded at the Juazeiro station) towards a less predictable and less stable regime, while the flow dynamics upstream (at the San Francisco station) remained unchanged. The temporal evolution of RQA quatifiers (obtained by applying OPRP in sliding windows) identified the influence of the Três Marias dam on the downstream of São Francisco station. Both dams induced the same downstream flow changes, with a greater degree of change for the Juazeiro station due to the shorter distance from the upstream dam. The OPRP sliding window technique showed sensitivity regarding the dam operation and also the damping process with increasing distance between the dam and the downstream hydrological stations.