Banca de DEFESA: IVANILDO BATISTA DA SILVA JÚNIOR

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STUDENT : IVANILDO BATISTA DA SILVA JÚNIOR
DATE: 28/02/2023
TIME: 09:00
LOCAL: https://meet.google.com/nyp-pjfc-jgx
TITLE:

Sand-temporal variability of drought characteristics in Pernambuco

KEY WORDS:

Standardized Precipitation Index. Drought characteristics. Trend test.

PAGES: 87
BIG AREA: Ciências Agrárias
AREA: Agronomia
SUMMARY:

This work is dedicated to investigating the characteristics of drought in the state of Pernambuco based on precipitation data from the period 1962 to 2012. Since the phenomenon of drought is recognized as offering the most dangerous natural risks, which can affect the most varied regions of the world and generate economic and social damage, the increase in the search for understanding the dynamics of droughts and the number of methods of analysis created with the objective of identifying, monitoring and quantifying them. The drought indicator recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), however, is the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the method adopted here. Since the SPI is an index capable not only of identifying whether there has been a drought, but also of classifying its category (mild, moderate, severe and extreme), it has been widely used in the study of this very important phenomenon. Based on data from 133 rainfall stations spread across the entire territorial extension of the state, the SPI was calculated here on an annual (SPI-12) and seasonal (SPI-3) scale. From the series obtained, the drought characteristics were investigated: frequency, affected area and intensity. Together with the results obtained for drought characteristics, the spatial interpolation method Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) was used. In addition, based on the results of the spatial distributions obtained, the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test was applied in order to identify statistical differences between the Sertão, Agreste and Zona da Mata regions of Pernambuco regarding drought characteristics (frequency, intensity and affected area). For the temporal analysis, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests were used to identify the trend, and the Sen's slope test for the magnitude of the trend. Results obtained for the spatial distribution of the frequency of drought on an annual scale indicated that the drought and the mild type was the one that occurred with greater frequency, mainly in the Sertão region, where it was also verified that there was a greater proportion of stations with a significant trend. On a seasonal scale, the winter and spring seasons showed more pronounced concentrations between types of drought and greater statistical differences between regions. With regard to the results of the area affected by drought, it was observed that, both in the annual scale and for the seasonal scale, the Mann-Kendall test points to the presence of a significant positive trend. As for the intensity of annual drought, the spatial distributions showed higher concentrations in the south of the Zona da Mata for general (total) and moderate droughts, and in the east of the Sertão and southwest of the Agreste for severe and extreme droughts; on the seasonal scale, there was a lower intensity of severe and extreme drought in the Sertão during winter and spring. The average intensity of drought in both scales showed a significant positive trend. Finally, the relationship between the average intensity and the area affected by the drought was obtained, which was positive for all types of droughts and in the two scales considered.

COMMITTEE MEMBERS:
Presidente - ANTONIO SAMUEL ALVES DA SILVA
Externo à Instituição - JOSE RODRIGO SANTOS SILVA - UFS
Interna - TATIJANA STOSIC