Modeling wind speed and solar radiation in Brazil using mathematical-computational techniques
Wind energy, Solar energy, Renewable sources, probability distribution, MFDFA
In the globalized world, there is always the need for new investments in energy sources to meet all the demands, not only industrial but also population. In a world where we already have more than 8 billion inhabitants, there is a very great demand for energy for the daily needs of the population, for example. In addition to the need for energy, one concern is rising temperatures on earth. For this reason, countries have been trying at all costs to reduce the global average temperature of the earth by 2°C. For this goal to be achieved, many countries are investing in renewable energy sources as one of the ways to contribute these reductions in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which is one of the causes of global warming. For this reason, in November 2021, in Glasgow, Scotland, the Brazil it committed by the year 2030 to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by around 50\%, with investments in clean and renewable energy. In Brazil, the energy sources that can contribute to the country achieving this established goal are wind and solar power. From this perspective, one of our objectives in this work was to understand and analyze the persistence and mixtures of probability destruction, through statistical, numerical, and artificial intelligence methods to estimate the potential of wind and solar power generation. For this, mixtures of probability distributions and the Multifractal Method Detrended Fluctuation Analysis-MFDFA are used in the modeling of the series. In addition, the geographic spatialization of the potential of wind velocity values was performed, and it was observed that for those velocities that are above 3.0m/s, the higher the height, the greater the occurrence of these observations of velocities above this threshold. Among the five Brazilian regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast and Midwest), it is observed that the Northeast region has higher potential for wind power generation. The region also showed good results for the installation of solar panels. Wind and solar energy sources are important for generating clean and renewable energy across the country and can be considered complementary sources. It is expected that this research will be able to assist public agencies in decision-making about investments in renewable energies, in particular, in the wind and solar energy sources. It is important to highlight that investments in wind and solar energy are needed in Brazil and around the world due to the growing need to replace conventional and non-renewable energy sources with renewable and clean alternatives.