Banca de DEFESA: EDGO JACKSON PINTO SANTIAGO

Uma banca de DEFESA de DOUTORADO foi cadastrada pelo programa.
STUDENT : EDGO JACKSON PINTO SANTIAGO
DATE: 29/06/2022
TIME: 08:00
LOCAL: meet.google.com/kmj-pnkh-wvh
TITLE:

Climate elements modeled by Copula and Palmer mango productivity in the valley sub middle of the São Francisco River

KEY WORDS:

semiarid, climate change, mating selection, probability map, cuff, Mangifera indica.

PAGES: 315
BIG AREA: Ciências Agrárias
AREA: Agronomia
SUMMARY:

Semi-arid climate variability combined with ongoing climate changes affects agricultural systems in the world with impacts on crops, and crop yields and threatens global food security. The region of the valley of the sub middle of the São Francisco River has been suffering from these changes that have brought significant losses arising from the fall in the productivity of the orchards and the disqualification of fruits for commercialization, either by the increase in rainfall during the harvest of the table grape or by the harmful effect that high temperatures and low relative humidity have caused during flowering/beginning of fruiting in mango trees cv. Palmer. Therefore, as important as quantifying is predicting extreme events related to high temperature and low relative humidity in order to understand the response mechanism of natural vegetation and agricultural crops to climate change. In this context, inference and statistical analysis are common tools to estimate the risk of events of interest, and the use of copula has been a natural choice as it is flexible to build multivariate distribution and capture the structure of interdependence between the multiple variables involved. Thus, the objective of this work was to select copulas for joint analysis of temperature and relative humidity and spatialization of probabilities in the region of the sub middle valley of the São Francisco River. The study was carried out with daily data on temperature and relative air humidity obtained between 2003 and 2018 at 17 meteorological stations in the region. For each month of data, 12 probability models and 10 copula models were fitted, which presented the best performances for univariate and bivariate estimates. For most months, the Log-Logistics-Exponenced, Generalized Extreme Values distributions and the Plackett and Frank copulas were the ones that were best suited to model the temperature and relative humidity of the air in the region of the sub middle of the São Paulo River. Francis. October and November are the months in that most of the São Francisco River sub-medium valley region is subject to maximum and average temperatures, respectively, above the thresholds of 31.6°C and 26.1°C with 90% probability. October and November are also the months with the highest risk of maximum temperatures above 33°C associated with the simultaneous occurrence of minimum relative humidity below 30%. Therefore, November is the month with the highest probability of occurrence of temperature and relative humidity unsuitable for the flowering of 'Palmer' mango trees and, therefore, more favorable to the occurrence of stenospermocarpic fruits at harvest in April or May, considering the cycle of the variety.

BANKING MEMBERS:
Externa à Instituição - MARIA APARECIDA DO CARMO MOUCO - EMBRAPA
Externa à Instituição - GERTRUDES MACÁRIO DE OLIVEIRA - UNEB
Externo à Instituição - MÁRIO DE MIRANDA VILAS BOAS RAMOS LEITÃO - UNIVASF
Interno - 1756995 - FRANK SINATRA GOMES DA SILVA
Interno - 1079630 - JOSE RAMON BARROS CANTALICE